erschienen in der Publikation "Jahrbuch für internationale Sicherheitspolitik 2004"
- Dezember 2004
The Second Nuclear Age
The nuclear age that began in 1945 is not really a single age. It is in fact two eras. The first nuclear age was a bipolar competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. The spread of nuclear arms far beyond the confines of this rivalry has created a second nuclear age, one whose structure is different from that of the first. Here, structure refers to the relatively enduring pattern of relationships among actors. This paper describes the new structure of multi-polar relationships, of state and sub-state actors (e.g. terrorist groups). It concludes with some general conclusions about surprise, stability, and the impact of the second nuclear age on players in the international system.