erschienen in der Publikation "Jahrbuch für internationale Sicherheitspolitik 2004"
- Dezember 2004
State Collapse and Security Threats in Somalia
State collapse in Somalia consists of three distinct crises: protracted collapse of central government, armed conflict, and lawlessness. All three of these crises have undergone important changes since 1991. Efforts by local communities to manage state collapse have made Somalia somewhat less anarchic than was the case a decade ago. The prolonged collapse of the central government in Somalia has been driven by powerful economic and political interests which profit from conflict and lawlessness. Those interests are changing over time, however, especially among Somali businessmen, who are increasingly becoming a force for the rule of law and a predictable security environment. Meanwhile, concerns that Somalia may serve as a safe haven for terrorists are legitimate but have been overstated. Though Islamic radicals have used the country as a trans-shipment point into East Africa, Somalia has proven relatively inhospitable for foreign terrorists, especially in comparison to neighbouring states. There are however indications of an increase in Islamic radicalism and terrorist activity in the country, a trend which is likely to continue if the country’s political crisis remains unresolved.