The Security Political Situation In The Mediterranean Area
erschienen in der Publikation "Jahrbuch für internationale Sicherheitspolitik 1999" (ISBN: 3-8132-0599-1) - Dezember 1999
Autor(en):Dr. Stephen C. Calleya
The key development to watch in the Mediterranean in the next decade will be to see whether the phase of co-operative competition that has dominated post-Cold War relations to date is eventually superseded by an era of conflictual competition. This is sure to happen if states on the lower echelons of the economic development table come to the conclusion that they are not going to be able to improve their economic situation. If this age of indifference scenario does take hold, disorder will dominate Mediterranean relations and as resources are depleted, the region will become an economic wasteland.
In the post-Cold War world that has emerged, the patterns of relations in the Mediterranean have already moved away from a co-operative security dominant framework to a more competitive security based model. If contemporary trends continue, the Mediterranean is destined to become a geo-strategic zone of indifference. Soft security risks will multiply, demographic growth will exacerbate economic problems, and the developed world will adopt a selective engagement approach towards the area.
The only way this scenario can be avoided is if the Euro-Med Partnership process is overhauled, international institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF become more aggressive in their dealings with the region, and the Mediterranean countries themselves adopt a self-help mentality.