erschienen in der Publikation "Jahrbuch für internationale Sicherheitspolitik 2000"
(ISBN: 3-8132-0711-0) - Dezember 2000
Vollständiger Beitrag als PDF: 10 Seiten (155 KB)
An analysis of the Sino-Russian relationship shows that the dramatic reversal of geopolitical roles occurred in the last ten years between Russia and China has resulted in a more peaceful and equitable relationship which is mutually satisfying and valued by both. Whether this relationship will continue depends on how the longer-term interests of the two countries will interact. A geopolitical tour d’horizon allows one to see both convergence of interest and important differences which limit cooperation and may even point to conflict. The main conclusion of the analysis is that Sino-Russian political relations are likely to remain stable in the short and medium term, based on a convergence of interests in the position of the two countries vis-a-vis the United States, which is, however, unlikely to evolve into a true anti-American alliance - such an alliance could only be produced if the United States itself would challenge the supreme national security interests of Russia and China simultaneously. The prospect for conflict between Russia and China is also remote in the next 10-15 years, for the agendas of either government are largely inward-oriented. The happy state of the relationship may end in the longer term when the disparities of national power will become obvious and lead to China impacting more directly and decisively on the situation inside Russia.